‘It is also possible Rafael is torn apart by strong winds high in the atmosphere and dissipates in the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall,’ Deger said.
An alternate path prediction has Rafael tracking westward across the Gulf instead of heading north toward the US. If that happens, the impact to the US would be minimal, according to AccuWeather.
A hurricane warning is in effect for Cuba, and locals should brace for ‘damaging hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge and destructive waves’
If Rafael weakens, but remains intact, and turns toward the northern Gulf Coast, it could enhance rainfall along a cold front this weekend into early next week, The Weather Channel reported.
Rafael is the 17th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
Though it is not expected to directly impact Florida, tropical storm conditions could put added strain on local communities still reeling from hurricanes Helene and Milton, which ravaged the state within two weeks of each other.
These storms caused widespread damage in the Sunshine State, k_illing an estimated combined total of 54 people.
As per the Office of Insurance Regulation, estimated insurance claims as a result of both Helene and Milton have exceeded $4 billion in Florida.
The National Hurricane Center is tracking Category 2 Hurricane Rafael as it moves northwest through the Caribbean with potential to impact the Gulf of Mexico this weekThough this storm is not expected to directly impact Florida, a tropical storm warning has been issued for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys
As Rafael tracks toward the US, Floridians should regularly monitor updates to the weather forecast, the NHC advised.
It is very rare for hurricanes to hit the US in November.
That’s because this is the last month of the Atlantic hurricane season, and favorable conditions for tropical storm formation have decreased.
A total of 287 hurricanes have made landfall in the US since record keeping began in 1851, and of those, only four hit in November, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) database.
The most recent one – Hurricane Nicole – hit Florida in November 2022. Before that, the US hadn’t seen a November hurricane since Katie in 1985.
Rafael is the strongest hurricane to move through the northwestern Caribbean in November since 2009, as per NOAA.
As the storm closes in on Cuba, experts say it’s possible that it could still strengthen into a Category 3 hurricane before making landfall.
Nine storms – including Rafael – have rapidly intensified in the Atlantic basin this year, fueled by unprecedentedly high ocean temperatures.
Rapid storm intensification is becoming more common as the atmosphere and oceans warm due to climate change, according to NOAA.
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